Past Publications
Modeling Workgroup
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Understanding Chesapeake Bay Modeling Tools: A history of updates, governance, policy and procedures
The Chesapeake Bay Program uses state-of-the art science and monitoring data to replicate conditions of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This information is then used by decision-makers at the federal, state and local levels to determine...
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February 06, 2017
Assessing Water Quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the Impact of Sea Level Rise and Warming, Wang P., Linker L., Wang H., Bhatt G., Yactayo G., Hinson K., and Tian R.
The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary...
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September 19, 2016
Influence of Wind Strength and Duration on Relative Hypoxia Reductions by Opposite Wind Directions in an Estuary with an Asymmetric Channel, Wang P, Wang H, Linker L, & Hinson K, 2016
Computer model experiments are applied to analyze hypoxia reductions for opposing wind directions under various speeds and durations in the north–south oriented, two-layer-circulated Chesapeake estuary. Wind’s role in destratification...
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Using Geographically Isolated Loading Scenarios to Analyze Nitrogen and Phosphorus Exchanges and Explore Tailored Nutrient Control Strategies for Efficient Management, 2016, Wang, Ping, Lewis C. Linker, and Gary W. Shenk
A set of geographically isolated differential nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loadmodel scenarios frommajor Chesapeake basins provides information on the relative impact of nutrient loads on primary production and dissolved oxygen...
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September 05, 2014
Erratum to: Relative Importance of Nutrient Load and Wind on Regulating Interannual Summer Hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay, 2015, Wang, Ping, Wang, Harry, and Linker, Lewis
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August 15, 2014
Relative Importance of Nutrient Load and Wind on Regulating Interannual Summer Hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay, 2015, Wang, Ping, Harry Wang, and Lewis Linker
To analyze the correlations of summer anoxia/hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay with watershed input and wind conditions, statistics were applied to nearly three decades of monitoring data. The results of Pearson correlation coefficients,...
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Twenty-One-Year Simulation of Chesapeake Bay Water Quality using the CE-QUAL-ICM Eutrophication Model, 2013, Cerco and Noel
The CE-QUAL-ICM (Corps of Engineers Integrated Compartment Water Quality Model) eutrophication model was applied in a 21-year simulation of Chesapeake Bay water quality, 1985-2005. The eutrophication model is part of a larger model...
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Influence of Reservoir Infill on Coastal Deep Water Hypoxia, 2016, Linker et al
Ecological restoration of the Chesapeake through the Chesapeake Bay total maximum daily load (TMDL) requires the reduction of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads in the Chesapeake watershed because of the tidal water quality...
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Conowingo Reservoir Sedimentation and Chesapeake Bay: State of the Science, 2016, Cerco
The Conowingo Reservoir is situated on the Susquehanna River, immediately upstream of Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the United States. Sedimentation in the reservoir provides an unintended benefit to the bay by preventing...
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August 29, 2016
Impact of Reservoir Sediment Scour on Water Quality in a Downstream Estuary, 2016, Cerco and Noel
The Conowingo Reservoir is situated at the lower terminus of the Susquehanna River watershed, immediately above Chesapeake Bay. Since construction, the reservoir has been filling with sediment to the point where storage capacity is...
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April 01, 2014
Calculation of Oyster Benefits with a Bioenergetics Model of the Virginia Oyster
A bioenergetics model is formulated and validated for the Virginia oyster (Crassostrea virginica). The model considers two basic properties of a bivalve population: number of individuals and individual size. Individuals are...
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October 01, 2013
Total Maximum Daily Load Criteria Assessment Using Monitoring and Modeling Data
Applications of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) criteria for complex estuarine systems like Chesapeake Bay have been limited by difficulties in estimating precisely how changes in input loads will impact ambient water quality. A...
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October 01, 2013
Twenty-One-Year Simulation of Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Using the CE-QUAL-ICM Eutrophication Model
The CE-QUAL-ICM (Corps of Engineers Integrated Compartment Water Quality Model) eutrophication model was applied in a 21-year simulation of Chesapeake Bay water quality, 1985-2005. The eutrophication
model is part of a larger model... -
October 01, 2013
Monitored and Modeled Correlations of Sediment and Nutrients with Chesapeake Bay Water Clarity
This article analyzes the correlations of the observed and modeled light attenuation coefficient, Kd, with in situ total suspended solids (TSS) and chlorophyll-a concentrations in Chesapeake Bay (CB) tidal waters, and with sediment...
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October 01, 2013
The Shallow-Water Component of the Chesapeake Bay Environmental Model Package
The shallow-water component of the Chesapeake Bay Environmental Model Package emphasizes the regions of the system inside the 2-m depth contour. The model of these regions is unified with the systemwide model but places emphasis on...
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October 01, 2013
Evaluation of a Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model Applied to Chesapeake Bay Through Long-Term Simulation of Transport Processes
A numerical model, the Curvilinear Hydrodynamics in 3-Dimensions, Waterway Experiment Station version (CH3D-WES), was applied to represent transport processes of the Chesapeake Bay. Grid resolution and spatial coverage, tied with...
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October 01, 2013
Estimating the Extent of Impervious Surfaces and Turf Grass Across Large Regions
The ability of researchers to accurately assess the extent of impervious and pervious developed surfaces, e.g., turf grass, using land-cover data derived from Landsat satellite imagery in the Chesapeake Bay watershed is limited due to...
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October 01, 2013
Deriving Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Standards
Achieving and maintaining the water quality conditions necessary to protect the aquatic living resources of the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries has required a foundation of quantifiable water quality
criteria. Quantitative... -
October 01, 2013
Computing Atmospheric Nutrient Loads to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Tidal Waters
Application of integrated Chesapeake Bay models of the airshed, watershed, and estuary support air and water nitrogen controls in the Chesapeake. The models include an airshed model of the Mid-Atlantic
region which tracks the... -
October 01, 2013
Featured Collection Introduction: Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load Development and Application
Featured Collection Introduction
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October 01, 2013
Development and Application of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Model
The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model simulates the Chesapeake watershed land use, river flows, and the associated transport and fate of nutrient and sediment loads to the Chesapeake Bay. The Phase 5.3 Model is the most recent of a series of...
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October 01, 2013
Development of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Allocation
Nutrient load allocations and subsequent reductions in total nitrogen and phosphorus have been applied in the Chesapeake watershed since 1992 to reduce hypoxia and to restore living resources. In 2010, sediment allocations were...
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Modeling the pH in the tidal fresh Potomac River under conditions of varying hydrology and loads
The pH of the freshwater portion of the Potomac River estuary attains 9–10.5, driven by photosynthesis during cyanobacteria blooms. Processes which contribute to elevated pH are examined by adding a massbalance model of the carbonate...
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September 01, 2012
Enhanced HSPF Model Structure for Chesapeake Bay Watershed Simulation
For more than two decades, an HSPF-based watershed model has been used to simulate nutrient and sediment load delivery to the Chesapeake Bay. Over time, the watershed model has increased in complexity commensurate with the management...
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Integration of a fish bioenergetics model into a spatially explicit water quality model: Application to menhaden in Chesapeake Bay
Although fish are usually thought of as victims of water quality degradation, it has been proposed that some planktivorous species may improve water quality through consumption of algae and sequestering of nutrients via growth. Within...
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Management modeling of suspended solids in the Chesapeake Bay, USA
The Chesapeake Bay, USA, suffers from multiple water quality impairments including poor water clarity. A management strategy aimed at improvingwater clarity through reduction of nutrient and solids loads to the bay is under...
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January 04, 2013
Documentation for Scenario Builder
Creation of the Nutrient and Scenario Builder tool was achieved with the excellent assistance of the Chesapeake Bay Program Information Technology contractor’s team led by Jessica Rigelman. With her leadership, Jonathan Lewis, Robert...
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July 01, 2000
Watershed Model Phase 4.3 Calibration Rules
The Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model (WSM) has been in continuous operation at the Chesapeake Bay Program since 1982, and has had many upgrades and refinements since that time. The WSM described in this paper is application Phase 4.3,...
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June 01, 2002
Nutrient and Solids Controls in Virginia's Chesapeake Bay Tributaries
A model package including a watershed model, an atmospheric loading model, a hydrodynamic model, and a eutrophication model are used to evaluate the benefit of nutrient and solids load controls on the Virginia tributaries to the...
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July 01, 2004
The 2002 Chesapeake Bay Eutrophication Model
Three models are at the heart of the Chesapeake Bay Environmental Model Package (CBEMP). Distributed flows and loads from the watershed are computed with a highly modified version of the HSPF model. Nutrient and solids loads are...
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August 01, 2003
Technical Support Document for Identification of Chesapeake Bay Designated Uses and Attainability
The TSD was developed by the EPA and its watershed partners to be a companion document to the Regional Criteria Guidance. Because it describes the development and geographical extent of the designated uses to which the refined water...
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February 01, 2002
Review of the Benthic Process Model with Recommendations for Future Modeling Efforts
The Benthic Process Model Review Team, assembled by the Modeling Subcommittee during Fall 2000, reviewed the benthic model developed for the Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Model, a component of Chesapeake Bay Estuary Modeling Package....
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November 01, 2002
A Comparison of Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Calibration with 1985-1994 Observed Data and Method of Application to Water Quality
In this report, observations of dissolved oxygen concentrations, chlorophyll concentrations, and light attenuation are compared to model estimates taken at the same time and location in model space. The comparison includes scatter...
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December 22, 2010
The 2010 Chesapeake Bay Eutrophication Model
The Chesapeake Bay Environmental Model Package is a combination of interactive models. The Community Multi-Scale Air Quality Model and a set of regression models compute daily atmospheric nitrogen and phosphorus loads to the...
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April 15, 2002
Tributary Refinements to the Chesapeake Bay Model
A series of refinements were added to a previously-completed three-dimensional eutrophication model of Chesapeake Bay. Refinements included increased grid resolution in the western tributaries and in shallow littoral areas, extension of...
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April 01, 2005
Assessing a Ten-Fold Increase in the Chesapeake Bay Native Oyster Population
The Chesapeake Bay Environmental Model Package (CBEMP) was used to assess the environmental benefits of a ten-fold increase in native oysters in Chesapeake Bay. The CBEMP consists of a coupled system of models including a...
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May 23, 2006
Coupling Suspended Sediment Dynamics and Light Penetration in the Upper Chesapeake Bay
The attenuation of light underwater is an important process in estuaries, directly affecting phytoplankton, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), visually orienting predators, and indirectly affecting oxygen depletion and other water...
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June 01, 2006
Ecosystem Effects of Oyster Restoration in Virginia Habitat and Lease Areas
This report is the third in a series in which the Chesapeake Bay Environment Model Package was used to assess the environmental benefits of oyster restoration in the Chesapeake Bay. Here, the effects of oyster restoration to all...
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September 01, 2005
Evaluating Ecosystem Effects of Oyster Restoration in Chesapeake Bay-A report to the MD DNR
The Chesapeake Bay Environmental Model Package (CBEMP) was used to assess the environmental benefits of oyster restoration in Chesapeake Bay. The CBEMP consists of a coupled system of models including a three-dimensional hydrodynamic...
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December 01, 2003
Setting and Allocating the Chesapeake Bay Basin Nutrient and Sediment Loads: The Collaborative Process, Technical Tools and Innovative Approaches
The Chesapeake 2000 agreement has been guiding Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and the District of Columbia, the Chesapeake Bay Commission and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in their combined efforts to restore and...
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September 30, 2000
Technical Tools Used in the Development of Virginia's Tributary Strategies: A Synthesis of Airshed, Watershed, and Estuary Model Results
The overall modeling framework used to assess Virginia's tributary strategies in 1999 is documented. This synthesis report provides an overview of the Chesapeake Bay Program airshed, watershed, and estuary models and other diagnostic...
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September 01, 2008
Review of Phase 5 Watershed Model Hydrologic Calibration
The hydrologic calibration of the phase 5 watershed model was evaluated through 9 published acceptable criteria used in HSPF Expert system. The specific flow characteristics evaluated are: Error in total volume; Error in low flow or...
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June 01, 2009
Tidal Sediment Yield Estimate Methodology in Virginia for the Chesapeake Bay Program Water Quality Model
Water quality in Chesapeake Bay has degraded over the past 50 years with respect to oxygen depletion and reduced light attenuation. While the causes are numerous, sediment resuspension from wave and tidal action cloud the water column...