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The Chesapeake Bay Program integrated models include simulations of the airshed, watershed, estuary, living resources, and climate change. These integrated models assess effects of current and proposed watershed management on changes in nutrient and sediment loads delivered to the Bay, and the effect those changing loads have on water quality and living resources. The CBP Models assist CBP decision-makers in estimating the collective actions needed to achieve State and Federal water quality standards necessary to restore the Bay.

Core Values

The Modeling Workgroup has a responsibility to the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership to provide state-of-the-art decision-support modeling tools that are built through community and participatory principles. The responsible planning and management of resources to provide the best available decision-support modeling tools requires the Modeling Workgroup members and participants to adhere to the core values of:

  • Integration. Integration of most recent science and knowledge in air, watershed, and coastal waters to support ecosystem modeling for restoration decision making.
  • Innovation. Embracing creativity and encouraging improvement in the development and support of transparent and robust modeling tools.
  • Independence. Making modeling decisions on the basis of best available evidence and using the most appropriate methods to produce, run, and interpret models, independent of policy considerations.
  • Inclusiveness. Commitment to an open and transparent process and the engagement of relevant partners, that results in strengthening the Partnership’s decision making tools.

Overall CBP Model Framework

The CBP model framework is designed to address questions of how Chesapeake Bay water quality will respond to changes in watershed and airshed management actions. In the first step of model scenario development, scenario management actions are interpreted by several models, including the Land Use Change Model, the Airshed Model, and Scenario Builder to produce input to the Watershed Model, as shown in the figure below. The CBP Land Use Change Model, predicts changes in land use, sewerage, and septic systems given changes in land use policy. The Airshed Model, a national application of Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), predicts changes in deposition of inorganic nitrogen due to changes in emissions. The Scenario Builder software combines the output of these models with other data sources, such as the US Census of Agriculture, to generate inputs to the Watershed Model. The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model predicts the loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment that result from the given inputs.The estuarine Water Quality and Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM) (also known as the Chesapeake Bay Model) predicts changes in Bay water quality due to the changes in input loads provided by the Watershed Model. As a final step, a water quality standard analysis system examines model estimates of DO, chlorophyll, and water clarity to assess in time and space the attainment of the Bay living resource-based water quality standards.

Additional Information

Projects

Midpoint Assessment

New web page summarizes the priorities and identifies lead researchers for each effort. The descriptions are brief with links to more detailed workplans.

Phase 7 Model Development

In Progress

These updated modeling tools will be used by the Chesapeake Bay Program partnership to inform decisions related to the nutrient and sediment reduction goals outlined in the 2014 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement.

Tributary Summaries

The Chesapeake Bay Program and its partners produce tributary basin summary reports for the Bay’s 12 major tributaries using tidal monitoring data from more than 130 monitoring stations throughout the mainstem and tidal portions of the Bay. These reports use water quality sample data to summarize 1) How tidal water quality (TN, TP, DO, Chlorophyll a, Secchi Depth) has changed over time, 2) How and which factors may influence water quality change over time, and 3) Recent research connecting observed changes in aquatic conditions to its drivers.

These documents can be found on the CAST webpage here.

Publications

Simulation of benthic microalgae impacts on water quality in shallow water systems, Corsica River, Chesapeake Bay

Publication date:

Tian, R., Cai, X., Cerco, C.F., Zhang, J.Y., and Linker, L.C., 2024. "Simulation of benthic microalgae impacts on water quality in shallow water systems, Corsica River, Chesapeake Bay." Frontiers in Marine Science. Volume 10 - 2023. 10:1295986. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1295986.

View document [PDF, 9.7 MB] Simulation of benthic microalgae impacts on water quality in shallow water systems, Corsica River, Chesapeake Bay

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