Modeling Workgroup
The Modeling Workgroup provides the Chesapeake Bay Program with state-of-the-art decision-support modeling tools to assess the effects of current and proposed watershed management practices on nutrient and sediment loads, as well as the the effects of those changing loads on water quality and living resources.
Meetings
Modeling Workgroup July 2025 Quarterly Review - Day 1
Modeling Workgroup July 2025 Quarterly Review - Day 2
Modeling Workgroup October 2025 Quarterly Review - Day 1
Modeling Workgroup April 2025 Quarterly Review - Day 2
Modeling Workgroup April 2025 Quarterly Review - Day 1
Modeling Workgroup January 2025 Quarterly Review - Day 2
About
The Chesapeake Bay Program integrated models include simulations of the airshed, watershed, estuary, living resources, and climate change. These integrated models assess effects of current and proposed watershed management on changes in nutrient and sediment loads delivered to the Bay, and the effect those changing loads have on water quality and living resources. The CBP Models assist CBP decision-makers in estimating the collective actions needed to achieve State and Federal water quality standards necessary to restore the Bay.
Core Values
The Modeling Workgroup has a responsibility to the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership to provide state-of-the-art decision-support modeling tools that are built through community and participatory principles. The responsible planning and management of resources to provide the best available decision-support modeling tools requires the Modeling Workgroup members and participants to adhere to the core values of:
- Integration. Integration of most recent science and knowledge in air, watershed, and coastal waters to support ecosystem modeling for restoration decision making.
- Innovation. Embracing creativity and encouraging improvement in the development and support of transparent and robust modeling tools.
- Independence. Making modeling decisions on the basis of best available evidence and using the most appropriate methods to produce, run, and interpret models, independent of policy considerations.
- Inclusiveness. Commitment to an open and transparent process and the engagement of relevant partners, that results in strengthening the Partnership’s decision making tools.
Overall CBP Model Framework
The CBP model framework is designed to address questions of how Chesapeake Bay water quality will respond to changes in watershed and airshed management actions. In the first step of model scenario development, scenario management actions are interpreted by several models, including the Land Use Change Model, the Airshed Model, and Scenario Builder to produce input to the Watershed Model, as shown in the figure below. The CBP Land Use Change Model, predicts changes in land use, sewerage, and septic systems given changes in land use policy. The Airshed Model, a national application of Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), predicts changes in deposition of inorganic nitrogen due to changes in emissions. The Scenario Builder software combines the output of these models with other data sources, such as the US Census of Agriculture, to generate inputs to the Watershed Model. The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model predicts the loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment that result from the given inputs.The estuarine Water Quality and Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM) (also known as the Chesapeake Bay Model) predicts changes in Bay water quality due to the changes in input loads provided by the Watershed Model. As a final step, a water quality standard analysis system examines model estimates of DO, chlorophyll, and water clarity to assess in time and space the attainment of the Bay living resource-based water quality standards.
Additional Information
Projects
Midpoint Assessment
New web page summarizes the priorities and identifies lead researchers for each effort. The descriptions are brief with links to more detailed workplans.
Phase 7 Model Development
In ProgressThese updated modeling tools will be used by the Chesapeake Bay Program partnership to inform decisions related to the nutrient and sediment reduction goals outlined in the 2014 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement.
Tributary Summaries
The Chesapeake Bay Program and its partners produce tributary basin summary reports for the Bay’s 12 major tributaries using tidal monitoring data from more than 130 monitoring stations throughout the mainstem and tidal portions of the Bay. These reports use water quality sample data to summarize 1) How tidal water quality (TN, TP, DO, Chlorophyll a, Secchi Depth) has changed over time, 2) How and which factors may influence water quality change over time, and 3) Recent research connecting observed changes in aquatic conditions to its drivers.
These documents can be found on the CAST webpage here.
Phase 6 Climate Change Modeling Documentation
Phase 6 Watershed Model Documentation
CompleteThis project entry serves as a home for Phase 6 Watershed Model documentation.
Publications
Examination of Observed Chlorophyll Concentration and Temperature in Chesapeake Bay and Tributaries
Publication date:Cerco, C. F., Robertson, T., Bertani, I., and Tian, R. 2024. Examination of Observed Chlorophyll Concentration and Temperature in Chesapeake Bay and Tributaries.
Large-scale Multi-objective Optimization for Watershed Planning and Assessment
Publication date:G. Toscano-Pulido, H. Razavi, A. P. Nejadhashemi, K. Deb and L. Linker, "Large-Scale Multi-objective Optimization for Watershed Planning and Assessment," in IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems, doi: 10.1109/TSMC.2024.3361679.
Simulation of benthic microalgae impacts on water quality in shallow water systems, Corsica River, Chesapeake Bay
Publication date:Tian, R., Cai, X., Cerco, C.F., Zhang, J.Y., and Linker, L.C., 2024. "Simulation of benthic microalgae impacts on water quality in shallow water systems, Corsica River, Chesapeake Bay." Frontiers in Marine Science. Volume 10 - 2023. 10:1295986. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1295986.
Effect of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation on Chesapeake Bay Water Quality
Publication date:Cerco, C. F. and Tian, R. 2023. Effect of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation on Chesapeake Bay Water Quality.
View document [PDF, 3.1 MB] Effect of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation on Chesapeake Bay Water Quality
Sea-Level Rise Impacts on Tidal Marshes and Estuarine Biogeochemical Processes
Publication date:Cai, X., Shen, J., Zhang, Y. J., Qin, Q., & Linker, L. (2023). "Sea-level rise impacts on tidal marshes and estuarine biogeochemical processes." Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 128, e2023JG007450. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JG007450.
Our Workgroups & Action Teams
Our Members
- Dave Montali (Chair)
Tetra Tech dave.montali@tetratech.com - Mark Bennett (Chair)
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) mrbennet@usgs.gov - Lewis Linker (Coordinator)
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency linker.lewis@epa.gov - Gabriel Duran (Staffer)
Chesapeake Research Consortium gduran@chesapeakebay.net - Bill Keeling
Virginia Department of Environmental Quality william.keeling@deq.virginia.gov - Peter Tango
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ptango@chesapeakebay.net - George Onyullo
District of Columbia Department of Energy & Environment (DOEE) george.onyullo@dc.gov - Jesse Bash
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency bash.jesse@epamail.epa.gov - Karl Berger
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments kberger@mwcog.org - Cassie Davis
New York State Department of Environmental Conservation Cassandra.davis@dec.ny.gov - Mukhtar Ibrahim
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments mibrahim@mwcog.org - Bill Ball
Chesapeake Research Consortium ballw@chesapeake.org - Carl Cerco
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) carlcerco@outlook.com - Dinorah Dalmasy
Maryland Department of the Environment dinorah.dalmasy@maryland.gov - Raleigh Hood
University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science rhood@hpl.umces.edu - Carl Friedrichs
Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) carl.friedrichs@vims.edu - Hassan Mirsajadi
Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control Hassan.Mirsajadi@state.de.us - Bill Brown
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania willbrown@pa.gov - Lauren Townley
New York State Department of Environmental Conservation lauren.townley@dec.ny.gov - Scott Heidel
Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection scheidel@pa.gov - Alisha Mulkey
Maryland Department of Agriculture alisha.mulkey@maryland.gov - Chris Brosch
Delaware Department of Agriculture chris.brosch@state.de.us - Clint Gill
Delaware Department of Agriculture clint.gill@state.de.us - Gopal Bhatt
Pennsylvania State University (Penn State) gbhatt@chesapeakebay.net - Guido Yactayo
Maryland Department of the Environment guido.yactayo@maryland.gov - Jason Keppler
Maryland Department of Agriculture jason.keppler@maryland.gov - Jeremy Hanson
Chesapeake Research Consortium hansonj@chesapeake.org - Julie Reichert-Nguyen
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office julie.reichert-nguyen@noaa.gov - Ken Hyer
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) kenhyer@usgs.gov - Lee Currey
Maryland Department of the Environment lcurrey@mde.state.md.us - Lee McDonnell
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency mcdonnell.lee@epa.gov - Normand Goulet
Northern Virginia Regional Commission ngoulet@novaregion.org - Olivia Devereux
Devereux Environmental Consulting olivia@devereuxconsulting.com - Richard Tian
University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science rtian@chesapeakebay.net - Steve Bieber
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments sbieber@mwcog.org - Vanessa Van Note
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency vannote.vanessa@epa.gov - Vimal Amin
Maryland Department of the Environment vimal.amin@maryland.gov - Katherine Bentley
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency bentley.katherine@epa.gov - Suzanne Trevena
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - Region 3 trevena.suzanne@epa.gov - Gregory Voigt
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Voigt.Gregory@epa.gov - Breck Sullivan
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) bsullivan@chesapeakebay.net - Joseph Maurice Delesantro
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency jdelesantro@chesapeakebay.net - Tanya Spero
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency spero.tanya@epa.gov - Anna Jalowska
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency jalowska.anna@epa.gov - Renee Matthews
Maryland Department of the Environment renee.matthews@maryland.gov - Xia Xie
Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control xia.xie@state.de.us - Joseph Kleiner
Virginia Department of Environmental Quality joseph.kleiner@deq.virginia.gov - Katherine Filippino
Hampton Roads Planning District Commission kfilippino@hrpdcva.gov - Jeremy Trombley
Centre for Renewable Energy jmtrombley@gmail.com - Clint Boschen
Tetra Tech clint.boschen@tetratech-ffx.com - Ben Zaitchik
Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University zaitchik@jhu.edu - Alimatou Seck
Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB) aseck@icprb.org