Modeling Workgroup
Upcoming Meetings
Modeling Workgroup Meeting Quarterly Review - June 2023
Tuesday, June 20, 2023 from 9:00am - 3:00pmModeling Workgroup Meeting Quarterly Review - June 2023
Wednesday, June 21, 2023 from 9:00am - 3:00pmScope and Purpose
The Chesapeake Bay Program integrated models include simulations of the airshed, watershed, estuary, living resources, and climate change. These integrated models assess effects of current and proposed watershed management on changes in nutrient and sediment loads delivered to the Bay, and the effect those changing loads have on water quality and living resources. The CBP Models assist CBP decision-makers in estimating the collective actions needed to achieve State and Federal water quality standards necessary to restore the Bay.
Core Values
The Modeling Workgroup has a responsibility to the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership to provide state-of-the-art decision-support modeling tools that are built through community and participatory principles. The responsible planning and management of resources to provide the best available decision-support modeling tools requires the Modeling Workgroup members and participants to adhere to the core values of:
- Integration - Integration of most recent science and knowledge in air, watershed, and coastal waters to support ecosystem modeling for restoration decision making.
- Innovation - Embracing creativity and encouraging improvement in the development and support of transparent and robust modeling tools.
- Independence – Making modeling decisions on the basis of best available evidence and using the most appropriate methods to produce, run, and interpret models, independent of policy considerations.
- Inclusiveness - Commitment to an open and transparent process and the engagement of relevant partners, that results in strengthening the Partnership’s decision making tools.
Overall CBP Model Framework
The CBP model framework is designed to address questions of how Chesapeake Bay water quality will respond to changes in watershed and airshed management actions. In the first step of model scenario development, scenario management actions are interpreted by several models, including the Land Use Change Model, the Airshed Model, and Scenario Builder to produce input to the Watershed Model, as shown in the figure below. The CBP Land Use Change Model, predicts changes in land use, sewerage, and septic systems given changes in land use policy. The Airshed Model, a national application of Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), predicts changes in deposition of inorganic nitrogen due to changes in emissions. The Scenario Builder software combines the output of these models with other data sources, such as the US Census of Agriculture, to generate inputs to the Watershed Model. The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model predicts the loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment that result from the given inputs.The estuarine Water Quality and Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM) (also known as the Chesapeake Bay Model) predicts changes in Bay water quality due to the changes in input loads provided by the Watershed Model. As a final step, a water quality standard analysis system examines model estimates of DO, chlorophyll, and water clarity to assess in time and space the attainment of the Bay living resource-based water quality standards.
Additional information can be found at:
Projects and Resources
Midpoint Assessment
New web page summarizes the priorities and identifies lead researchers for each effort. The descriptions are brief with links to more detailed workplans.
Phase 7 Model Development
The Chesapeake Bay Program is updating its modeling and analysis tools used in the Chesapeake Bay TMDL. For more information, please visit the Phase 7 Model Development Webpage.
Tributary Summaries
The Chesapeake Bay Program and its partners produce tributary basin summary reports for the Bay’s 12 major tributaries using tidal monitoring data from more than 130 monitoring stations throughout the mainstem and tidal portions of the Bay. These reports use water quality sample data to summarize 1) How tidal water quality (TN, TP, DO, Chlorophyll a, Secchi Depth) has changed over time, 2) How and which factors may influence water quality change over time, and 3) Recent research connecting observed changes in aquatic conditions to its drivers.
These documents can be found on the CAST webpage here.
Phase 6 Climate Change Modeling Documentation
- Climate Change Phase 6 Modeling Documentation (pdf - 12.878 MB)
Phase 6 Watershed Model Documentation
The model documentation is available as a single downloadable document (78 MB) or as separate model sections (see Below). The suggested citation is: Chesapeake Bay Program Office, 2020. Phase 6 Dynamic Watershed Model and CAST-17 Documentation. https://cast.chesapeakebay.net....
1. Overview
2. Average Loads
Appendix 2A: Agricultural Loading Rates
3. Terrestrial Inputs
Appendices ABCDG: Terrestrial Inputs
Appendix 3E: Swine Characterization Study Final Report
Appendix 3F: Turkey Litter Nutrients
Appendix 3H: Atmospheric Deposition
4. Sensitivity
Appendix 4A: Sensitivity analysis of the HSPF AgChem Model
Appendix 4B: Sensitivity analysis for all land uses
5. DRAFT Land Use
DRAFT Land Use Appendix
6. Best Management Practices
Appendix 6A: BMP Expert Panel Protocol
Appendix 6B: Order of Load Source Change Credit
8. Direct Loads
9. Stream to River
Appendix 9A: Alternate Stream to River Methods
Appendix 9B: Excluded Reservoir Catchments
10. River to Bay and Temporal Simulation
Appendix 10A: Ftables and Stations
Appendix 10B: Calibration Stations
Appendix 10C: Nutrients and Sediment Calibration Targets
Appendix 10D: HSPF River Water Quality Parameters
Appendix 10E: Estuarine Model Linkage
11. Physical Setting
Appendix 11A: List of Segments
12. Applications
13. Reviews
14. References
15. Errata
Publications
The Roles of Tidal Marshes in the Estuarine Biochemical Processes: A Numerical Modeling Study
Published on January 23, 2023Cai, X., Shen, J., Zhang, Y. J., Qin, Q., & Linker, L. (2023). The roles of tidal marshes in the estuarine biochemical processes: A numerical modeling study. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 128, e2022JG007066. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG...
View detailsFeatured Collection introduction: Climate change in Chesapeake Bay
Published on December 1, 2022Cerco, C.F. 2022. "Featured Collection introduction: Climate change in Chesapeake Bay." Journal of the American Water Resources Association 58 (6): 785–789. DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.13087.
View detailsDedication to James J. Fitzpatrick
Published on December 1, 2022Cerco, C.F. 2022. "Dedication to James J. Fitzpatrick" Journal of the American Water Resources Association 58 (6): 790-791. DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.13088.
View detailsWorkgroups and Action Teams
Members
Dave Montali (Chair), Tetra Tech
601 57th St SE
Charleston, westVirginia 25304
Email: dave.montali@tetratech.com
Phone: (304) 414-0054 x104
Mark Bennett (Chair), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1730 East Parham Road
Richmond, virginia 23228
Email: mrbennet@usgs.gov
Phone: (804) 261-2643
Lewis Linker (Coordinator), Modeling Coordinator, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
1750 Forest Drive Suite 130
Annapolis, maryland 21401
Email: linker.lewis@epa.gov
Phone: (410) 267-5741
Alex Gunnerson (Staffer), Scientific, Technical Assessment, and Reporting Team Staffer, Chesapeake Research Consortium
Bill Keeling, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality
P O Box 1105
Richmond, virginia 23218
Email: william.keeling@deq.virginia.gov
Phone: (804) 698-4342
Gary Shenk, Hydrologist, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1750 Forest Drive Suite 130
Annapolis, maryland 21401
Email: gshenk@chesapeakebay.net
Phone: (410) 507-2681
Peter Tango, Monitoring Coordinator, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
1750 Forest Drive Suite 130
Annapolis, maryland 21401
Email: ptango@chesapeakebay.net
Phone: (410) 267-9875
George Onyullo, District of Columbia Department of Energy & Environment (DOEE)
Ted Tesler, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
P.O. Box 2063
400 Market Street, 2nd Floor
Harrisburg, pennsylvania 17105
Email: thtesler@state.pa.us
Phone: (717) 772-5621
Jesse Bash, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Karl Berger, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
777 North Capitol Street, NE
Suite 300
Washington, districtOfColumbia 20002
Email: kberger@mwcog.org
Cassie Davis, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation
625 Broadway, 4th Floor
Albany, newYork 12233-3507
Email: Cassandra.davis@dec.ny.gov
Phone: (518) 402-8283
Mukhtar Ibrahim, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
Bill Ball, Chesapeake Research Consortium
Carl Cerco, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
Dinorah Dalmasy, Maryland Department of the Environment
1800 Washington Boulevard
Baltimore, maryland 21230
Email: dinorah.dalmasy@maryland.gov
Phone: (410) 537-3699