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A systematic review of Chesapeake Bay climate change impacts and uncertainty: watershed processes, pollutant delivery and BMP performance

Climate change in the Chesapeake Bay will affect the effort to reach the TMDL, and maintain needed nutrient and sediment reductions. In an effort to determine how baseline nutrient and sediment loads will likely change in response to climate, and the best management practices (BMPs) being used to reduce them will function, a modified systematic review process was undertaken. Using this process we reviewed research literature and studies related to two primary questions: 1. How do climate change and variability affect nutrient/sediment cycling in the watershed?; and 2. How do climate change and variability affect BMP performance?

Acknowledgements:

We want to thank and acknowledge the incredibly helpful and constructive comments from Julie Reichert-Nguyen, our steering committee (Raymond Najjar, Julie Shortridge, Kurt Stephenson, Lisa Wainger) and other reviewers including Lew Linker, David Wood, Alex Gunnerson, and Ken Staver. We are also grateful to Gary Shenk and Denice Wardrop for their valuable input. We also wish to thank members of the various Chesapeake Bay Program Goal Implementation Teams and workgroups that listened, and provided valuable input in response, to the numerous presentations dating back to 2020, particularly the Water Quality Goal Implementation Team, Climate Resiliency Workgroup, Modeling Workgroup, and Urban Stormwater Workgroup.

Suggested Citation: Hanson, J., E. Bock, B. Asfaw, and Z.M. Easton. 2022. A systematic review of Chesapeake Bay climate change impacts and uncertainty: watershed processes, pollutant delivery and BMP performance. CBP/TRS-330-22.

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Understanding Chesapeake Bay Modeling Tools

The Chesapeake Bay Program uses state-of-the art science and monitoring data to replicate conditions of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This information is then used by decision-makers at the federal, state and local levels to determine how best to restore and protect local waterways, and ultimately, the Chesapeake Bay. By combining advanced modeling tools and real-world monitoring data, we gain a comprehensive view of the Chesapeake ecosystem—from the depths of the Bay to the upper reaches of the watershed.

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2017 Technical Addendum Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chla

A total of seven addendum documents have been published by EPA since April 2003. Four addenda were published documenting detailed refinements to the criteria attainment and assessment procedures (U.S. EPA 2004a, 2007a, 2008, 2010) previously published in the original April 2003 Chesapeake Bay water quality criteria document (U.S. EPA 2003a). One addendum published Chesapeake Bay numerical chlorophyll a criteria (U.S. EPA 2007b). Three addenda addressed detailed issues involving further delineation of tidal water designated uses (U.S. EPA 2004b, 2005, 2010) building from the original October 2003 tidal water designated uses document (U.S. EPA 2003b). Finally, one addendum documented the 92-segment Chesapeake Bay segmentation scheme (U.S. EPA 2008) after refinements to the Chesapeake Bay Program analytical segmentation schemes were documented (U.S. EPA 2005) building from the original U.S. EPA 2004 document (U.S. EPA 2004b). This 2017 addendum is the eight addendum document developed through the Partnership and published by EPA.

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