A Path Forward in Considering Future Environmental Scenarios in Chesapeake Bay Restoration Efforts
STAC Workshop Report
The STAC Workshop, "CBP Climate Change Modeling III: Post-2025 decisions," convened May 2024 to refine and expand existing climate modeling efforts for the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. This workshop, the third in a series over the past eight years, aimed to advance modeling frameworks to better assess climate change impacts, in preparation for the reconsideration of the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) Planning Targets in 2027
Description
The Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) hosted a 3-day workshop in May 2024 to bring together Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) managers and model developers with experts in watershed science, estuarine processes, and environmental forecasting. As the Bay Program works to incorporate future environmental scenarios into its modeling framework, there is a growing need for coordinated guidance on model improvements, assumptions, and integration of uncertainty. The workshop focused on advancing the development and application of CBP’s Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) modeling suite (specifically the Phase 7 watershed and estuarine models) to ensure they remain robust, policy-relevant, and capable of addressing evolving conditions. Participants identified priority methodological updates, explored ways to represent phenological shifts, and revisited earlier recommendations to refine them for current and future needs.
Category: Report