A Population Simulation Model for Blue Crab Stock Assessment Performance Evaluation

Description

Operating models are mathematical representations or hypotheses that reflect the dynamics of the exploited population. This study worked to develop and evaluate operating models for the blue crab fishery in the Chesapeake Bay. The research objectives were:

1. Prepare an open, fully documented population model for blue crab that can serve as an operating model to test the performance of any subsequent stock assessment and to evaluate the potential impacts of sources of error in input data sources.
2. Conduct extensive simulation testing of the operating model to validate parameterization and model performance to ensure it provides a suitable foundation from which to evaluate the performance of current and future stock assessment models under different suites of assumptions regarding the state of nature, uncertainties in specific input data and management uncertainty.