2019 Blue Crab Advisory Report

Description

The Chesapeake Bay Stock Assessment Committee (CBSAC) meets annually to review the results of the Chesapeake Bay blue crab surveys and harvest data, and to develop management advice. CBSAC adopted the Bay-wide Winter Dredge Survey (WDS) as the primary indicator of blue crab population health in 2006 because it is the most comprehensive and statistically robust of the blue crab surveys conducted in the Bay. Based on survey estimates, the total abundance of all crabs (males and females of all ages) was estimated at 594 million crabs in 2019. Recruitment, or the number of age 0 crabs (less than 60 mm or 2.4 inches carapace width), was estimated as 324 million crabs in 2019. Approximately 191 million age 1+ female crabs were estimated to be present in the Bay at the start of the 2019 crabbing season, which is well above the abundance threshold of 70 million crabs, and near the target of 215 million crabs. The 2011 benchmark assessment recommended a control rule based on biological reference points for the female component of the population. The percentage of female crabs (ages 0+) removed by fishing (exploitation fraction) in 2018 was approximately 23%. This exploitation fraction is below the target of 25.5% and the threshold of 34% for the 11th consecutive year since 2008. Therefore, overfishing is not occurring and the population is not depleted.

Based on analysis of the 2019 winter dredge survey results, CBSAC concludes that fishery restrictions by management are not warranted, but the jurisdictions should maintain a cautious, risk-averse approach in the 2019 season. CBSAC recommends that the jurisdictions implement procedures that provide accurate accountability of all commercial and recreational harvest moving forward, as this is an important component for accurately assessing stock health.