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Modeling Workgroup

Scope and Purpose

The Chesapeake Bay Program integrated models include simulations of the airshed, watershed, estuary, living resources, and climate change. These integrated models assess effects of current and proposed watershed management on changes in nutrient and sediment loads delivered to the Bay, and the effect those changing loads have on water quality and living resources. The CBP Models assist CBP decision-makers in estimating the collective actions needed to achieve State and Federal water quality standards necessary to restore the Bay.

Objectives

  • Develop cutting-edge and technically defensible modeling tools as directed by CBP decision-makers.
  • Develop airshed, watershed, estuary, living resource, and climate change scenarios as directed by CBP decision makers.
  • Estimate the aggregate effect of management practices from each source sector due to changes in land use, atmospheric deposition, fertilizer application, animal populations, manures, and management actions.
  • Track and quantify nutrient and sediment loads as implementation progresses in the Watershed Implementation Plans (WIPs) towards the 2025 goal to have all management measures in place to achieve the Chesapeake living resource based water quality standards.
  • Develop scenarios to assess management actions needed to fully achieve Bay water quality standards that are cost effective, equitable through a dialog with CBP decision-makers.

Overall CBP Model Framework

The CBP model framework is designed to address questions of how Chesapeake Bay water quality will respond to changes in watershed and airshed management actions.  In the first step of model scenario development, scenario management actions are interpreted by several models, including the Land Use Change Model, the Airshed Model, and Scenario Builder to produce input to the Watershed Model, as shown in the figure below.  The CBP Land Use Change Model, predicts changes in land use, sewerage, and septic systems given changes in land use policy. The Airshed Model, a national application of Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), predicts changes in deposition of inorganic nitrogen due to changes in emissions. The Scenario Builder software combines the output of these models with other data sources, such as the US Census of Agriculture, to generate inputs to the Watershed Model.  The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model predicts the loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment that result from the given inputs.The estuarine Water Quality and Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM) (also known as the Chesapeake Bay Model) predicts changes in Bay water quality due to the changes in input loads provided by the Watershed Model. As a final step, a water quality standard analysis system examines model estimates of DO, chlorophyll, and water clarity to assess in time and space the attainment of the Bay living resource-based water quality standards.

 

Additional information can be found at:


  • Lee Currey (Co-Chair), Maryland Department of the Environment
  • Dave Montali (Co-Chair), West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection
  • Lewis Linker (Coordinator), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
  • Amanda Pruzinsky (Staff), Chesapeake Research Consortium

  • Mark Bennett, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
  • Steve Bieber, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
  • Bill Brown, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
  • Arthur Butt, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality
  • Monir Chowdhury, District of Columbia Department of the Environment (DDOE)
  • Robin Dennis, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
  • Steve Gladding, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation
  • Bill Keeling, Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation
  • Ross Mandel, Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB)
  • Kenn Pattison, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
  • Gary Shenk, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
  • Helen Stewart, Maryland Department of Natural Resources
  • Peter Tango, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
  • Harry Wang, Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS)

Upcoming Events

    July 2013 Modeling Quarterly Review

    Location

    Joe Macknis Memorial Conference Room

    Date / Time:

    July 23, 2013 to July 24, 2013
    10:00am - 3:30pm

    Details:

    January 2013 Modeling Quarterly Review. Please see agenda for more information.

    Conference Line 1-866-299-3188 code 4102675731
    Adobe Connect https://epa.connectsolutions.com/modeling

Past Meetings & Events

  • April 9, 2013 to April 10, 2013 - April 2013 Modeling Quarterly Review
  • January 8, 2013 to January 9, 2013 - January 2013 Modeling Quarterly Review
  • November 28, 2012 - November 2012 Modeling Workgroup Conference Call
  • October 2, 2012 to October 3, 2012 - October Modeling Quarterly Review
  • July 11, 2012 - July Modeling Quarterly Review
  • June 26, 2012 - June Seminar for International Vistors
  • May 21, 2012 - Chesapeake Modeling Symposium 2012
  • April 17, 2012 - Modeling Quarterly Review Meeting
  • April 16, 2012 - Modeling Quarterly Review Meeting 4/16
  • January 11, 2012 - Modeling Team Quarterly Review

    • Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model

    • Phase 4.3 Watershed Model Calibration
    • Scenario Data

    2002 Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Model

    All of the files below are in the pdf format. To download your free Adobe Acrobat Reader visit www.adobe.com

    Shoreline Sensitivity Scenario SENS153 -Final Calibration with Refined SAV Simulation:

    Shoreline Sensitivity Scenario SENS148 - 50% reduction in bank solids loads:

    Shoreline Sensitivity Scenario SENS149 - 20% reduction in bank solids loads:

    Shoreline Sensitivity Scenario Tier III

    Tier III reductions in solids and nutrient loads (including year 2000 bank load controls):

    Shoreline Sensitivity Scenario Tier III p20

    Tier 3 plus 20% reduction in bank solids and nutrient loads (20% reduction from year 2000 bank loads):

    FINAL Water Quality Model Calibration Run January, 2002

    Shoreline Sensitivity Scenario SENS146

    100% Reduction in bank loads of solids, 100% reduction in bank loads of nutrients:

    Shoreline Sensitivity Scenario SENS147

    100% Reduction in bank loads of solids with no nutrients reduction:

    Chesapeake Bay Water Quality and Sediment Transport Model

    Peer Reviews

    CMAQ Review Process: During the past three years, CMAS, in collaboration with EPA scientists, has organized two CMAQ review panel meetings etc. The first CMAQ review meeting was held during December 2003. The second meeting was held during May 2005. The review process usually starts by inviting a number of key scientists to participate in the process. The scientists are selected based on their expertise in accordance with the focus of the review session. After reviewing numerous reports and articles and completing their meeting in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, the review panel prepares a comprehensive report on their findings and recommendations. EPA then responds to the comments of the reviewers. Final review reports are posted below.

    First Review (December, 2003)

    Second Review (May, 2005)

    Third Review (February, 2007)

    Chesapeake Bay Models

    First Chesapeake Bay Phase 5 Watershed Model Review

    Second Chesapeake Bay Phase 5 Watershed Model Review

    Chesapeake Bay Water Quality and Sediment Transport Model

    Review of the Shallow Water SAV and Clarity Simulation

    Peer Review Guidance

    The CBP models follow the peer review guidance developed by EPA’s Science Advisory Board (SAB) for regulatory models: http://www.epa.gov/spc/pdfs/modelpr.pdf  and the peer review guidance developed by the Ecological Society of America and endorsed by the American College of Preventive Medicine, American Fisheries Society, American Institute of Biological Sciences, American Public Health Association, American Society of Agronomy, American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, Association of Teachers of Preventive Medicine, Crop Science Society of America, Ecological Society of America, Estuarine Research Federation, Institute of Food Technologists, Soil Science Society of America, Society for Conservation Biology

    Tools

    Chesapeake Bay Program Community Models - The Chesapeake Bay Program develops and maintains several environmental models that enable scientists to simulate changes in an ecosystem due to changes in population, land use or pollution management. Used properly, these models can help restoration leaders develop policies and programs to improve the quality of the Bay.



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