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Modeling Workgroup

Upcoming Meetings

April 6, 2021
12:00 am - 12:00 pm

April 2021 Modeling Workgroup Meeting Quarterly Review

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Scope and Purpose

The Chesapeake Bay Program integrated models include simulations of the airshed, watershed, estuary, living resources, and climate change. These integrated models assess effects of current and proposed watershed management on changes in nutrient and sediment loads delivered to the Bay, and the effect those changing loads have on water quality and living resources. The CBP Models assist CBP decision-makers in estimating the collective actions needed to achieve State and Federal water quality standards necessary to restore the Bay.

Core Values

The Modeling Workgroup has a responsibility to the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership to provide state-of-the-art decision-support modeling tools that are built through community and participatory principles. The responsible planning and management of resources to provide the best available decision-support modeling tools requires the Modeling Workgroup members and participants to adhere to the core values of: 

  • Integration - Integration of most recent science and knowledge in air, watershed, and coastal waters to support ecosystem modeling for restoration decision making.
  • Innovation - Embracing creativity and encouraging improvement in the development and support of transparent and robust modeling tools.
  • Independence – Making modeling decisions on the basis of best available evidence and using the most appropriate methods to produce, run, and interpret models, independent of policy considerations.
  • Inclusiveness - Commitment to an open and transparent process and the engagement of relevant partners, that results in strengthening the Partnership’s decision making tools.

Overall CBP Model Framework

The CBP model framework is designed to address questions of how Chesapeake Bay water quality will respond to changes in watershed and airshed management actions.  In the first step of model scenario development, scenario management actions are interpreted by several models, including the Land Use Change Model, the Airshed Model, and Scenario Builder to produce input to the Watershed Model, as shown in the figure below.  The CBP Land Use Change Model, predicts changes in land use, sewerage, and septic systems given changes in land use policy. The Airshed Model, a national application of Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), predicts changes in deposition of inorganic nitrogen due to changes in emissions. The Scenario Builder software combines the output of these models with other data sources, such as the US Census of Agriculture, to generate inputs to the Watershed Model.  The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model predicts the loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment that result from the given inputs.The estuarine Water Quality and Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM) (also known as the Chesapeake Bay Model) predicts changes in Bay water quality due to the changes in input loads provided by the Watershed Model. As a final step, a water quality standard analysis system examines model estimates of DO, chlorophyll, and water clarity to assess in time and space the attainment of the Bay living resource-based water quality standards.

 

Additional information can be found at:

  • CAST
  • Phase 6 Modeling Tools
  • Model Fact Sheet

Projects and Resources

Phase 6 WSM Documentation

The Final Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership Phase 6 CAST and Watershed Model documentation is posted as it becomes available. The documentation is for the time-averaged Watershed Model. CAST is the same as the Model. Creating and running scenarios in CAST is simply using an on-line interface to the Model. The documentation for the Model is the documentation for CAST. Due to the length of the documentation, it is divided into sections. Click on the links below to read through the different portions of the documentation. For more information, please vist CAST model documentation.

  1. Overview
  2. Average Loads
    Appendix 2A:Agricultural Loading Rates
  3. Terrestrial Inputs-coming soon
  4. Sensitivity 
    Appendix 4A: Sensitivity analysis of the HSPF AgChem Model
    Appendix 4B: Sensitivity analysis for all land uses
  5. Land Use-coming soon
  6. Best Management Practices 
    Appendix 6A: BMP Expert Panel Protocol 
    Appendix 6B Order of Load Source Change Credit
  7. Land to Water
  8. Direct Loads - coming soon
  9. Stream to River 
    Appendix 9A: lternate Stream to River Methods
    Appendix 9B: Excluded Reservoir Catchments
  10. River to Bay and Temporal Simulation
    Appendix 10A: Temporal Simulation - coming soon
    Appendix 10B: Temporal Simulation - coming soon
    Appendix 10C: Temporal Simulation - coming soon
  11. Physical Setting
    Appendix 11A: List of Segments
  12. Applications - coming soon
  13. Reviews - coming soon
  14. References - coming soon

The Chesapeake Bay TMDL 2017 Midpoint Assessment

  • 2017 Chesapeake Bay Water Quality and Sediment Transport Model (24.81 MB)
  • Diagnostics of the Chesapeake Bay Nonattaining Dissolved Oxygen Criteria Segments (6.02 MB)
  • Influence of Volkswagen Settlement Agreements on Chesapeake Water Quality (798.5 KB)
  • Final Phase III WIP Planning Targets by State, State-Basin, and with Nutrient Exchange Ratios (16.75 KB)

Phase 6 WQSTM Peer Review

This project page is the repository for documents and files related to the peer review of the Phase 6 Water Quality and Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM). Please email Kyle Hinson (khinson@chesapeakebay.net) with any questions you may have.

Documentation

All documentation for the Phase 6 WQSTM can be found in the Draft 2017 documentation and its appendices. Information on key scenarios can also be found in the Phase 6 Key Scenarios pdf file.

Additional Materials

Further attachments contain all the presentations that were presented for the STAC peer review.

  • DRAFT 2017 WQSTM Documentation (6.69 MB)
  • DRAFT 2017 WQSTM Documentation - Appendix A (4.72 MB)
  • DRAFT 2017 WQSTM Documentation - Appendix B, C, and D (6.03 MB)
  • Phase 6 Key Scenarios (2.98 MB)
  • Attachment A: Lewis Linker - Challenges of the 2017 Midpoint Assessment Addressed by the Water Quality Sediment Transport Model (2.6 MB)
  • Attachment B: Carl Cerco - Overall Review of New WQSTM Elements (2.45 MB)
  • Attachment C: Carl Cerco - Simulation of G1, G2, and G3 Particulate Organics (1.1 MB)
  • Attachment D: Gopal Bhatt - Conowingo Infill Simulation (2.03 MB)
  • Attachment E: Ping Wang, Richard Tian, and Carl Cerco - Representation of Sea Level Rise and Tidal Wetland Attenuation (2.8 MB)
  • Attachment F: Carl Cerco - WQSTM Representation of Tributaries and Shallow Waters in the Chesapeake (2.12 MB)

Phase 6 WQSTM Peer Review

This section contains resources and publications including prior reviews that may be employed in reviewing the Phase 6 Water Quality and Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM).

  • Modeling Subcommittee Response to the STAC Report: Review of the Water Quality Model, 2000 (1.23 MB)
  • Chesapeake Bay Hydrodynamic Model Review Summary, 2002 (430.19 KB)
  • Review of the Benthic Process Model with Recommendations for Future Modeling Efforts, 2002 (3.81 MB)

Midpoint Assessment

New web page summarizes the priorities and identifies lead researchers for each effort.  The descriptions are brief with links to more detailed workplans.

Chesapeake Bay Bathymetric Volumes

  • DOCUMENTATION: Creation of bathymetric volumes for the Chesapeake Bay (260.56 KB)
  • MAP: Segment scheme 92 TMDL (1.2 MB)
  • DATA: CBSEG92 bathymetric volumes (212.75 KB)

CMAQ Peer Reviews

CMAQ Review Process: During the past three years, CMAS, in collaboration with EPA scientists, has organized two CMAQ review panel meetings etc. The first CMAQ review meeting was held during December 2003. The second meeting was held during May 2005. The review process usually starts by inviting a number of key scientists to participate in the process. The scientists are selected based on their expertise in accordance with the focus of the review session. After reviewing numerous reports and articles and completing their meeting in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, the review panel prepares a comprehensive report on their findings and recommendations. EPA then responds to the comments of the reviewers. Final review reports are posted below.

First Review (December, 2003)

  • An evaluation of eta-cmaq air quality forecast model (eder) (811.45 KB)
  • Cmaq aerosol module (bhave) (354.5 KB)
  • Cmaq modeling of atmospheric mercury (bullock) (686.58 KB)
  • Cmaq modeling system overview (schere) (235.87 KB)
  • Cmaq overview (schere) (235.87 KB)
  • Cmaq plume-in-grid modeling effort (godowitch) (565.11 KB)
  • Creating meteorology for cmaq (otte) (362.64 KB)
  • Diagnostic and in-depth model evaluation (dennis) (796.28 KB)
  • Emissions modeling support and research for cmaq (pierce) (308.68 KB)
  • Evaluation of 2003 release of models-3 cmaq (eder) (1.8 MB)
  • Final Report Summary: December 2003 Peer Review of the CMAQ Model (98.19 KB)
  • Final report (98.19 KB)
  • Future development plans for cmaq (schere) (28.77 KB)
  • Gas-phase chemistry (gipson) (48.93 KB)
  • Inverse modeling to estimate seasonal nh3 emissions (gilliland) (659.41 KB)
  • Land surface modeling and dry deposition (pleim) (859.84 KB)
  • Linking eta to cmaq for aq forecasting (otte) (237.92 KB)
  • Linking with nws eta model for air quality forecasting (schere) (121.42 KB)
  • Model evaluation plans for cmaq04 (gilliland) (254.83 KB)
  • Predicting fate and transport of toxic air pollutants (luecken) (245.99 KB)
  • Recent developments for parallel cmaq (young) (184.77 KB)
  • Transport processes in cmaq (pleim) (397.2 KB)

Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) Model - Third Review (February, 2007)

  • Response to the Third Peer Review of the CMAQ Model, April, 2007 (76.73 KB)
  • Final Report: Third Peer Review of the CMAQ Model, February, 2007 (504.77 KB)

Chesapeake Bay Models

  • Modeling in the Chesapeake Bay Program: 2010 and Beyond (1.02 MB)
View All >>

Publications

  • Understanding Chesapeake Bay Modeling Tools: A history of updates, governance, policy and procedures

    The Chesapeake Bay Program uses state-of-the art science and monitoring data to replicate conditions of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This information is then used by decision-makers at the federal, state and local levels to...

  • February 06, 2017

    Assessing Water Quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the Impact of Sea Level Rise and Warming, Wang P., Linker L., Wang H., Bhatt G., Yactayo G., Hinson K., and Tian R.

    The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in...

  • September 19, 2016

    Influence of Wind Strength and Duration on Relative Hypoxia Reductions by Opposite Wind Directions in an Estuary with an Asymmetric Channel, Wang P, Wang H, Linker L, & Hinson K, 2016

    Computer model experiments are applied to analyze hypoxia reductions for opposing wind directions under various speeds and durations in the north–south oriented, two-layer-circulated Chesapeake estuary. Wind’s role in...

View All >>
  • Workgroups and Action Teams

    • Chesapeake Hypoxia Analysis and Modeling Program

    • Evaluation of Multiple Shallow Water Systems Analysis

  • Members

    • Dave Montali (Chair), Tetra Tech, West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection

      Address:
      601 57th St SE
      Charleston West Virginia 25304

      • Email: dave.montali@tetratech.com
      • Phone: (304) 414-0054
      • Download VCard
    • Mark Bennett (Chair), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

      Address:
      1730 East Parham Road
      Richmond Virginia 23228

      • Email: mrbennet@usgs.gov
      • Phone: (804) 261-2643
      • Download VCard
    • Lewis Linker (Coordinator), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency


      Modeling Coordinator

      Address:
      410 Severn Avenue, Suite 109
      Annapolis Maryland 21403

      • Email: linker.lewis@epa.gov
      • Phone: (410) 267-5741
      • Download VCard
    • Tom Butler (Staffer), Chesapeake Research Consortium


      Modeling Staffer

      Address:
      410 Severn Ave.
      Annapolis Maryland 21403

      • Email: butlert@chesapeake.org
      • Download VCard
    • Bill Ball, Chesapeake Research Consortium

      Address:
      242 Garland Hall
      Baltimore Maryland 21218

      • Email: ballw@chesapeake.org
      • Download VCard
    • Jesse Bash, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

      Address:
      RTP
      Durham North Carolina 27709

      • Email: bash.jesse@epamail.epa.gov
      • Download VCard
    • Karl Berger, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

      Address:
      777 North Capitol Street, NE
      Suite 300
      Washington District of Columbia 20002

      • Email: kberger@mwcog.org
      • Download VCard
    • Bill Brown, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

      Address:
      400 Market Stree
      Harrisburg Pennsylvania 17105

      • Email: willbrown@pa.gov
      • Download VCard
    • Carl Cerco, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)

      Address:
      3909 Halls Ferry Road
      Vicksburg Mississippi 39180

      • Email: carlcerco@outlook.com
      • Download VCard
    • Dinorah Dalmasy, Maryland Department of the Environment

      Address:
      1800 Washington Boulevard
      Baltimore Maryland 21230

      • Email: dinorah.dalmasy@maryland.gov
      • Phone: (410) 537-3699
      • Download VCard
    • Cassie Davis , New York State Department of Environmental Conservation

      Address:
      625 Broadway, 4th Floor
      Albany New York 12233-3507

      • Email: Cassandra.davis@dec.ny.gov
      • Phone: (518) 402-8283
      • Download VCard
    • Carl Friedrichs, Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS)

      Address:
      Rt. 1208 Greate Rd.
      Gloucester Point Virginia 23062-1346

      • Email: cfried@vims.edu
      • Download VCard
    • Raleigh Hood, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES)

      Address:
      P.O. Box 775
      Cambridge Maryland 21613

      • Email: rhood@hpl.umces.edu
      • Phone: (410) 221-8434
      • Download VCard
    • Mukhtar Ibrahim, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

      Address:
      777 North Capitol St NE #300
      Washington District of Columbia 20002

      • Email: mibrahim@mwcog.org
      • Download VCard
    • Bill Keeling, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality

      Address:
      P O Box 1105
      Richmond Virginia 23218

      • Email: william.keeling@deq.virginia.gov
      • Phone: (804) 698-4342
      • Download VCard
    • Bruce Michael, Maryland Department of Natural Resources

      Address:
      Tawes State Office Bldg., C-2
      Annapolis Maryland 21401

      • Email: bmichael@dnr.state.md.us
      • Phone: (410) 260-8627
      • Download VCard
    • Hassan Mirsajadi, Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control

      Address:
      89 Kings Hwy
      Dover Delaware 19901

      • Email: Hassan.Mirsajadi@state.de.us
      • Download VCard
    • George Onyullo, District of Columbia Department of Energy & Environment (DOEE)

      Address:
      1200 First St. NE
      5th Floor
      Washington District of Columbia 20002

      • Email: george.onyullo@dc.gov
      • Download VCard
    • Gary Shenk, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)


      Hydrologist

      Address:
      410 Severn Avenue, Suite 109
      Annapolis Maryland 21403

      • Email: gshenk@chesapeakebay.net
      • Phone: (410) 267-5745
      • Download VCard
    • Peter Tango, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)


      Monitoring Coordinator

      Address:
      410 Severn Avenue
      Suite 112
      Annapolis Maryland 21403

      • Email: ptango@chesapeakebay.net
      • Phone: (410) 267-9875
      • Download VCard
    • Ted Tesler, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

      Address:
      P.O. Box 2063
      400 Market Street, 2nd Floor
      Harrisburg Pennsylvania 17105

      • Email: thtesler@state.pa.us
      • Phone: (717) 772-5621
      • Download VCard
    • Lauren Townley, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation

      Address:
      625 Broadway
      Albany New York 12233

      • Email: lauren.townley@dec.ny.gov
      • Phone: (518) 402-8283
      • Download VCard
    • Harry Wang, Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS)

      Address:
      P.O. Box 1346
      Gloucester Point Virginia 23062

      • Email: hvwang@vims.edu
      • Phone: (804) 684-7215
      • Download VCard

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The Chesapeake Bay Program is a unique regional partnership that has led and directed the restoration of the Chesapeake Bay since 1983.

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